What a difference. Between the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009. If it weren't for the Prozac nation, what would it be? Populace binged on everything: from stocks to housing to cheap loans (topped off with SUVs and iPods) during much of the 1990s and 2000s. At first glance, it appeared that the people were naive and led into believing that the "so called prosperity" was a real one and would last for ever. Now, we know that everyone was not so naive, many of them were complicit. Everyone found out that the "prosperity" was not so real. People also found out that it could not be achieved so fast without necessary discipline and sacrifices as they realized during this upheaval period and everyone hunkered down during this time period.
Most everyone on this planet earth had an awakening late last year and acted accordingly. Just too much. Just as the binging was too much, panic set in the marketplace was too much. We did not have to pay the price that we did. It did no one any good. Once we realize that mistakes were committed in the past, we make the corrective action. We should not make another mistake by overshooting in another direction. However, that is what exactly what happened by creating a free-fall in the securities market and finance sector which also created a second coming of the "Great Depression" talk. Now, folks have come around the full circle and now we see consumer confidence springing to well deserved levels from decade lows during last several months. Hence the analogy of a Prozac Nation, as it was dubbed at the height of tech mania in late 1999 and early 2000.
Certainly some preliminary signs are emerging for economic stability or at least a halt of precipitous decline. Housing market seems to be finding some kind of a footing. As the months go by, we hope to continue to see more and more of that. It is also an encouraging sign to see people become much more disciplined as it comes to spending. That is great for the longer term, however, no fun for the time being and certainly not for the economy. Now, only if our governments and the regulators have the fortitude to do the right thing to avoid such boom and bust scenarios.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Death of Wall Street
If the banking and finance sector had put the matter of "financial strength" ahead of "quick profits" in their corporate lives, this post would not have existed. It is beyond anyone's doubt that it is that myopia and greed that have brought the financial services industry to its knees and killed the Wall Street for good. It is a "human nature" as they say that is a culprit here.
As long as greed and naivete are there, there will be swindlers on this earth. The recent episode of 2007-2008 upheaval of financial services industry demonstrates the fact that in absence of a solid foundation, the industry is doomed to repeat its mistakes again, be it within one, two or three generation's time frame. As long as people (investors, financial institutions and enablers such as governments) are myopic and do not take a long term view of fixing its root problems, the bubbles, manias and subsequent busts are just going to keep re-occurring just in a different shape, form or size.
As long as the government has no political will to ditch the myopia and take the strong medicine in terms of regulatory reforms to create sound and sensible regulations and its unforgiving implementation, financial services history littered with these blemishes will continue to repeat itself again. Government may not have an ability to eliminate such catastrophes, however, it does have a power to lay a strong foundation and a framework that ensures that such calamities are lot less frequent and lot less smaller in size.
Is it just ironic or is it by design that rich and famous who plan conservatively never get in trouble, yet rich and famous who do not execute well end up loosing much of their wealth? If it can happen to rich, why not to a general populace? It is not the "profit" that matters ultimately, it is the "strength" that matters in a long run. My heart aches a lot to see my beloved (and so near and dear to my heart) industry getting killed by a handful of myopic folks.
As long as greed and naivete are there, there will be swindlers on this earth. The recent episode of 2007-2008 upheaval of financial services industry demonstrates the fact that in absence of a solid foundation, the industry is doomed to repeat its mistakes again, be it within one, two or three generation's time frame. As long as people (investors, financial institutions and enablers such as governments) are myopic and do not take a long term view of fixing its root problems, the bubbles, manias and subsequent busts are just going to keep re-occurring just in a different shape, form or size.
As long as the government has no political will to ditch the myopia and take the strong medicine in terms of regulatory reforms to create sound and sensible regulations and its unforgiving implementation, financial services history littered with these blemishes will continue to repeat itself again. Government may not have an ability to eliminate such catastrophes, however, it does have a power to lay a strong foundation and a framework that ensures that such calamities are lot less frequent and lot less smaller in size.
Is it just ironic or is it by design that rich and famous who plan conservatively never get in trouble, yet rich and famous who do not execute well end up loosing much of their wealth? If it can happen to rich, why not to a general populace? It is not the "profit" that matters ultimately, it is the "strength" that matters in a long run. My heart aches a lot to see my beloved (and so near and dear to my heart) industry getting killed by a handful of myopic folks.
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