Have We Reached the Economic Bottom Yet?

It appears that way at least. Does it mean that going forward, it will be an easy ride? Not by any stretch of an imagination. Although, what I am encouraged by is the resiliency of an American soul to rebound from such lows. This resiliency had been so typical for a consumer throughout the 1990s and 2000s that the U.S. consumer seemed insatiable. Businesses obviously had been through their typical highs and lows in terms of their capital spending. It was the U.S. consumer that kept the massive economic engine going. Well, that engine sputtered big time in 2006 through 2008 and now it is going in a more moderate or slow, but predictable fashion.

U.S. consumer has pulled its horns and gone into a hibernation for an indefinite period. That is how far as predictable as it can get. That is not changing anytime soon due to its heavy debt load. What has changed for the better over the last couple quarters is that the American consumers and businesses have steered clear of their extreme pessimism. That is no small feat. I have been really encouraged to see such a massive change in an American psyche. I, always being a contrarian, have been quite cynical about the over-optimism and over-pessimism that we have witnessed in the financial markets.

The year 2008 was certainly a pinnacle in that extreme pessimism just as 1999 and 2000 were the pinnacles of the extreme optimism. So, reverting back to the normalcy and ruling under the law of averages is always a highly desirable thing for folks like me. So, I welcome to more normal environment like this. The mainstream media has been calling this a "New Normal", but this is not a not a new normal. In a way, it is, if you compare to the "Old Normal", which was not normal. Otherwise, this is a real normal. Working hard and earning every penny that you truly deserve. That is a new normal so to speak.