My view is that this is it when it comes to this rampant fear and panic driven massive sell-off. Markets will probably make the bottom soon, if they have not already made it, yet. Current severe (understatement) sell-off eliminates the possibility of bottom in 2009, which could have been probable in absence of this insane sell-off. There is always this chance of further significant sell-off, however, I see it as a remote possibility.
That is for the market only, however. As for the economy, it is a different story altogether.
More financial institutions will fail and many more companies will go belly-up. Though, it seems reflected now in the major stock indices. That means, I do not envision more price adjustments for the markets as a whole.
Depression or not, it sure is going to be weak for years to come. There is no doubt about it. But, hey, you know what, that is not so bad. That only means we may be stuck in an old-fashioned bear market lot longer. There is nothing wrong with living in somewhat dismal times. The worst thing is to live in an abnormally good or bad time, since we may not be able to handle it right.
My biggest fear of inflation threat is subsiding, especially in light of a global slowdown. So, that is the good news lately, not to mention the swift action of government during this market atrocity. In one fell swoop, everything is turned upside down and that has brought government down to its knees, which could not have been possible without recent rout.
Some sacrificial lambs have been offered to the market gods and there are more on the way. Though, that should not deter investors to grab otherwise healthy companies which are being choked by tight credit and non-discriminatory treatment. I am not bearish anymore, at least for the markets!
Decoupling of economy and markets is important at times. That is the times now. Fear-mongers are doing just that; feeding fear without any rationale. I am afraid that they are going to miss this inflection point, as always.
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Friday, October 10, 2008
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