Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Prozac Nation

What a difference. Between the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009. If it weren't for the Prozac nation, what would it be? Populace binged on everything: from stocks to housing to cheap loans (topped off with SUVs and iPods) during much of the 1990s and 2000s. At first glance, it appeared that the people were naive and led into believing that the "so called prosperity" was a real one and would last for ever. Now, we know that everyone was not so naive, many of them were complicit. Everyone found out that the "prosperity" was not so real. People also found out that it could not be achieved so fast without necessary discipline and sacrifices as they realized during this upheaval period and everyone hunkered down during this time period.

Most everyone on this planet earth had an awakening late last year and acted accordingly. Just too much. Just as the binging was too much, panic set in the marketplace was too much. We did not have to pay the price that we did. It did no one any good. Once we realize that mistakes were committed in the past, we make the corrective action. We should not make another mistake by overshooting in another direction. However, that is what exactly what happened by creating a free-fall in the securities market and finance sector which also created a second coming of the "Great Depression" talk. Now, folks have come around the full circle and now we see consumer confidence springing to well deserved levels from decade lows during last several months. Hence the analogy of a Prozac Nation, as it was dubbed at the height of tech mania in late 1999 and early 2000.

Certainly some preliminary signs are emerging for economic stability or at least a halt of precipitous decline. Housing market seems to be finding some kind of a footing. As the months go by, we hope to continue to see more and more of that. It is also an encouraging sign to see people become much more disciplined as it comes to spending. That is great for the longer term, however, no fun for the time being and certainly not for the economy. Now, only if our governments and the regulators have the fortitude to do the right thing to avoid such boom and bust scenarios.

1 comment:

Ray Lindsley said...

You are right, Jay- we need to find a way to keep the pendulum from swinging so widely. I honestly think that we will see a real change in consumer behavior over the next several years, as people spend more conservatively and save more. I certainly will be doing so, myself. However, history shows that peoples memories are short, and I am sure we have not seen the last bubble and its bursting. I just home that the regulators find ways to minimize the impact going forward.

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